Feb 25, 2011

Monetary Policy Committee a four-way split!

In Article 8 (page 40) of the latest edition of the book I discuss the role of the Bank of England's Monetary policy Committee. As I state in the "key terms" section:

"The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is in charge of setting UK interest rates. It is made up of nine members:

The Governor
Two Deputy-Governors
Two Bank of England Executive Directors
Four independent members.
They are required by the Government to ensure that the UK Economy enjoys price stability. This is defined by the Government’s set inflation target of 2%".

At the moment there is a heated debate among the members of the MPC with the latest minutes from the February meeting showing a four-way split for the first time in the history of this UK key financial institution.

Two members of the MPC wanted to see a 25 basis point increase in the Bank's Repo Rate.
Another member (the ultra hawkish Andrew Sentance) wanted an immediate 50 basis point increase.
One member (the ultra Dovish Andrew Posen) wanted to see a substantial boost to the quantitative easing (QE) programme.

The rest of the committee saw their view hold sway with no change in either the QE programme or in the Bank's Repo Rate. Given the recent upward trend in UK consumer price inflation it seems clear we will start to see a period of monetary tightening from the MPC in coming months. The timing is hard to predict but I would be surprised if we do not see the first increase in interest rates in the next couple of months. We just need two of the MPC's middle road members to join their more hawkish members in voting for some monetary tightening.

No comments: